Bert Stedman has clinched his fifth term in the Alaska State Senate.
Over 3,000 absentee and early ballots still haven’t been counted (as of press time on 11-12-20) from House District 36, which includes Wrangell, Ketchikan, and many Prince of Wales Island communities, but Stedman holds an undisputable lead with a more than 10-to-1 advantage (11,173 votes to 749 write-ins — or, roughly 93-percent of the votes counted so far).
The Sitka Republican ran unopposed on the ballot, although Petersburg Republican Michael Sheldon had registered as a write-in.
Stedman says he’s thankful to the residents of his district for turning out in such large numbers during the pandemic, or for taking the extra pains to cast mail-in ballots. He’ll begin the next session as one of the legislature’s most senior members, with 18 years of service. However, he says it could be one of the most challenging sessions of his career.
“A lot of the easy decisions have already been made,” he said. “We still have a structural deficit at hand, and we’ve depleted our savings accounts down to effectively zero. My concern is that people will take the easy way out and start liquidating the Permanent Fund Earnings Reserve.”
Stedman is a moderate Republican, who has been willing to work with Democrats and independents in the past on protecting the Permanent Fund, and on other issues important to coastal communities. The final composition of the Alaska senate will depend on the outcome of at least one key race in South Anchorage (Senate District N), where Republicans have favored the more conservative wing of the party.
Stedman is concerned about what will happen when campaign rhetoric meets reality in the state capital.
“If you listened to some of the platforms during the election it was ‘Vote for me, I’ll give you a bigger dividend, and I’ll give you a bigger dividend than the next guy, and no taxes, and a new ferry boat (or whatever’s handy in the district),’” said Stedman. “But the math doesn’t work, it just doesn’t work. And we have got to deal with the anti-math caucus.”
As co-chair of the Senate Finance Committee in his last term, Stedman has been one of the most influential members of the senate. It’s not clear yet what his role will be over the next four years, in either a straight Republican majority, or in a coalition with members of both parties. Meetings to work out these issues are currently underway in Anchorage.
The 32nd Alaska Legislature is scheduled to open on January 19, 2021, in Juneau.
A note on the possible organization of the Alaska Senate in the 32nd Legislature: Analysts expect that the Permanent Fund Dividend might be the wedge that splits the straight Republican majority in the senate, into urban and rural coalitions. The release of the governor’s draft budget on December 15 is widely expected to draw down the Power Cost Equalization Fund in order to balance the budget, and to pay residents a full dividend. PCE is critical for offsetting high utility costs in rural Alaska. Finding an eleven-vote majority to support that plan could change the dynamics in the senate. Additionally, Ballot Measure 2 (Ranked-choice voting and open primaries), if it passes, might pull some Republican legislators to more moderate positions, since all voters — and not just Republicans — will be casting ballots for them during the state’s primary elections in 2022.
