It’s likely to be another weak year for king salmon returns to the major river systems of Southeast Alaska in 2024.
The Alaska Department of Fish & Game issued its 2024 Southeast Alaska Chinook Salmon forecasts on Monday (12-18-23).
Of the 11 chinook stocks in the region, only the Chilkat River is expected to have an adequate number of chinook returning to spawn. Nevertheless, this number – known as escapement – is still in the middle of the range, and could be lower depending on how many fish are harvested before they get to the river.
The Alaska Department of Fish & Game has adopted action plans to try and limit the catch of king salmon bound for Southeast Rivers, but some are always intercepted.
However, ADF&G assessment biologist Philip Richards says overharvest is probably not the problem.
“There is some level of harvest for all of our Southeast stocks,” said Richards. “However, in the past five years in particular, the harvest rates have been extremely low for all of our stocks. That indicates that the harvest is not driving the low abundance – it’s most likely marine conditions.”
Marine survival remains “the million-dollar question” according to Richards. Many factors could be at work in the ocean, but Southeast’s chinook runs have dipped before, and the cause is unclear.
“Some of our chinook escapement projects started in the early 1970s. And at that time, escapements were extremely low,” Richards said. “Once again, we don’t know why. But that was a period (of low escapements). And we don’t know how long that lasted, you know, prior to us starting the stock assessment projects.”
In addition to the Chilkat, only the Unuk River in southern Southeast is expected to reach its escapement target – but just at the lower end with 1,800 kings returning to spawn. The Taku River near Juneau should see a return of just over 17,000 large fish, which is 2,000 below minimum. The department had insufficient data to forecast the run for the Stikine River near Wrangell, but it’s expected to be far below the minimum of 14,000 fish.
The Alaska Board of Fisheries has designated seven of Southeast Alaska’s wild chinook runs as “stocks of concern.” They are the Chilkat, Taku, King Salmon, Stikine, Unuk, and Chickamin rivers, and Andrew Creek.
